In May, the global manufacturing purchasing managers index fell continuously. The global economy con

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released, the global manufacturing PMI in May 2023 was 48.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, declining for 3 consecutive months, and below 50% for 8 consecutive months, creating a new low since June 2020. By region, Asia's manufacturing PMI is still above 50%; African manufacturing PMI slightly increased from the previous month, the index is near the critical point of 50%; The European manufacturing PMI and the Americas manufacturing PMI both declined slightly from the previous month, and both continued to run below 50%.

The index continues to be below 50% and hit a new low, which means that the downward trend of global economic volatility has not changed. Geopolitical conflicts, inflationary pressure, banking crisis and other factors have made the growth of global demand continue to be insufficient, and the global economy continues to weak recovery. From the perspective of various regional trends, the manufacturing industry in major countries in Europe and the United States is weakening, leading to a downward trend in global manufacturing, and the relatively stable manufacturing industry trend in major countries in Asia and Africa has become the main force for stabilizing the current manufacturing operation.

From the perspective of market expectations and inflation pressure, there are certain positive factors in the current economic operation, and if the expectations are fulfilled, the global economy may stop falling. First, the United Nations raised its economic growth forecast for 2023. The World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2023, recently released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, raised the world economic growth forecast for 2023 from 1.9% at the beginning of the year to 2.3%, but it is still lower than the previous IMF forecast of 2.8%. Second, the WTO recently released a report that although global trade was still sluggish in the first quarter of this year, the trend is expected to improve in the second quarter. The latest "Barometer of Trade in Goods" released by the WTO shows that the global goods trade climate index is 95.6, lower than the benchmark point of 100, but slightly higher than the 92.2 released in March this year. Third, inflationary pressures in both the eurozone and the United States are showing signs of easing. Eurozone CPI rose 6.1 per cent in May from a year earlier, down from 7 per cent in April. The CPI rose 4.9 per cent in April from a year earlier, down from 5 per cent in March. Although the CPI in the eurozone and the United States is still far from the 2% target, the easing of inflation pressure indicates that the eurozone and the United States will not increase the intensity of interest rate hikes to a certain extent, which is conducive to easing the downward pressure on the economy. Fourth, the RCEP has recently come into effect for the Philippines, which means that RCEP will enter a new stage of full implementation. The Asian region, represented by China and Southeast Asia, will attract more investment and trade with related countries will be more frequent, and will play a more important role in the global economic recovery.