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Europe and China are returning to coal and nuclear power

Issuing time:2023-02-09 09:45

Europe and China are simultaneously returning to coal and nuclear power in the face of the global energy crisis, but not for the same reasons. Under the target of carbon neutrality, taking into account the different development stages and resource endowment conditions of different countries, the time for recoal removal in Europe is likely to be shorter than that in China. China needs to accelerate the clean utilization of coal through technological progress on the premise of ensuring energy security.

Global and Chinese coal consumption rose in 2022, as Europe and China returned to coal due to changes in the international energy landscape.

In its previously released annual market report on the coal industry, the International Energy Agency (IEA) analyzed that global coal consumption will grow 1.2 percent in 2022 to a record high of more than 8 billion tons.

Zhang Anhua, Research Center for Sustainable Development of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out in an interview with China Economic Times that under the influence of Russia-Ukraine conflict and other factors, energy supply, sales price and   future expectations of coal, including coal, have undergone great changes. Many countries or consumers have turned to coal from other energy sources, thus causing changes in the production and marketing situation of the international coal market. In 2022, global coal production and international coal prices hit a record high, due to a reduction in hydropower and nuclear power output.

Wu Jiang, an adjunct professor at the School of Economics at Renmin University of China, told the China Economic Times that the volatility of international energy prices in 2022, the high price of natural gas and the relatively low price of coal have made coal an alternative energy source for natural gas, which has rebounded in the proportion of domestic energy consumption in recent years.

Zhang Anhua said frankly that the changes in the international and domestic situations have enhanced our understanding of the strategic value of coal resources, from the rapid promotion of coal reduction process to prudent and reasonable forward. At the same time, some coal production capacity has been released in an orderly manner to ensure energy security. The share of coal in total energy consumption has increased.

Both Europe and China are turning to coal, but not for exactly the same reasons.

Zhang Anhua says the same reason is the changing world energy situation. The difference is that Europe is more passive adjustment in the absence of energy independence, the fierce competition between neighboring energy sources, and the overall negative economic situation. But in our country, we mainly adjust actively according to our own economic and social development needs, give consideration to the actual situation of social production and life, and combine the long-term development goal.

Dong Xiucheng, executive director of the China Institute of International Carbon Neutral Economics at the University of International Business and Economics, pointed out in an interview with the China Economic Times that the energy crisis in Asia was mainly caused by the reduction and cut off of Russian gas supply, which made natural gas power generation hard hit, and had to restart coal power or delay the withdrawal of nuclear power. Coal is a stopgap solution for Europe. In China, coal will remain important until renewable energy becomes dominant.

Jenny, coal analyst of Shanghai Steel coal Coke Business Department, further analyzed to China Economic Times reporter, from the installed scale and power generation observation, coal power is still the most important power supply in China's current power supply, but also the basic power supply to ensure the safety and stability of power supply in China. It is expected that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society will be about 4%-5%, and the consumption of thermal coal will increase.

Wu Jiang believes that China's resource endowment condition is rich in coal, less oil and less gas, coal is the bottom energy of China, from the current storage and production ratio, there is still a large space for production, should pay more attention to the clean and efficient use of coal.

Positive progress has been made in clean utilization of coal. Zhang Anhua pointed out that the clean utilization of coal reflects the characteristics different from other countries: first, the level of clean utilization of coal is high, especially in coal-fired power generation, pollutant emission treatment and coal utilization efficiency are leading in the world; Second, the standards are relatively high. Over 90 percent of coal-fired power plants have achieved ultra-clean emissions, and many emission standards are higher than world-class standards. Third, the industrial chain is relatively complete, forming a relatively perfect industrial process; Fourth, the coal clean utilization system is huge, basically forming the largest system in the world. Fifth, the management system is relatively complete, both administrative management, and market measures.

Despite periodic increases in the world's and China's total coal consumption, there has been no fundamental change in the general trend towards a green and low-carbon transition.

Zhang pointed out that China's coal power reduction process will temporarily slow down slightly, the direction of reduction will not change, around 2025 to 2030, but coal power will continue to exist until around 2050.

"The main reason is that China's total energy demand scale is too large, the installed power generation capacity has exceeded 2.5 billion kW, it will take a long time to safely and fully establish a new energy system to support the operation of new energy, and it needs scientific and technological progress." Zhang Anhua said.

Overall, after years of steady progress, the overall trend of green energy transformation in China has not changed.

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